President Joe Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, delivered a stark warning on Wednesday: the United States could face a severe munitions shortage in the event of a conflict with China. Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Sullivan emphasized the urgent need for sustained investment in the U.S. defense industry, appealing to the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump to prioritize strengthening the nation’s military production capabilities.
“A War with China Would Deplete Stockpiles Rapidly”
Sullivan highlighted the unique challenges posed by China’s military capabilities, warning that a potential conflict with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would strain U.S. munitions reserves far more rapidly than current production rates can replenish.
“God forbid we end up in a full-scale war with the PRC,” Sullivan cautioned. “Any war with a country like the PRC, a military like the PRC, is going to involve the exhaustion of munition stockpiles very rapidly.”
To mitigate this risk, Sullivan urged the Trump administration and Congress to build upon efforts initiated during Biden’s presidency, including a proposed $500 million annual revolving fund to bolster munitions procurement.
“Rebuilding a Diminished Defense Industrial Base”
Sullivan painted a sobering picture of the state of the U.S. military-industrial base, which has diminished since the Cold War’s end when the United States perceived no immediate military rival. He called for a dual focus on increasing production before conflicts and ensuring the ability to surge manufacturing during wartime.
“First and most fundamentally, we’ve got to keep ramping up and accelerating production and procurement of the things that we need most,” Sullivan said.
The Biden administration has overseen a dramatic increase in munitions production, notably 155-millimeter artillery rounds critical to Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Production of these rounds has surged by 400%, reaching 55,000 per month, with a target of 100,000 per month by early 2026.
“Countering Alliances Among Adversaries”
Sullivan also underscored the growing alignment among U.S. adversaries, including China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. He stressed the importance of maintaining robust defense capabilities to counter these partnerships, particularly in light of the Trump team’s skepticism toward continued support for Ukraine.
The incoming administration, led by President-elect Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, has signaled a preference for redirecting resources toward countering China, with less enthusiasm for the billions allocated to Ukraine. Vance, a vocal critic of prolonged U.S. involvement in Ukraine, has suggested prioritizing a swift resolution to the conflict with Russia.
“A Strategic Decision for the Future”
As the Trump administration prepares to take office, Sullivan’s remarks serve as a call to action, urging continuity in bolstering the defense industry to meet the challenges of a rapidly evolving global security landscape.
The revolving fund proposal and increased production targets reflect the Biden administration’s commitment to strengthening U.S. military readiness. Whether the Trump administration embraces these initiatives or charts a new course could shape the United States’ ability to respond to future conflicts effectively.
With China’s growing military capabilities and shifting global alliances, the U.S. defense industry faces a pivotal moment. Sullivan’s stark warning underscores the high stakes for American national security and the urgent need for bipartisan cooperation to secure the nation’s future.