It’s not yet the MotoGP silly season, but the rider market for 2025 is already generating discussion after the first confirmations: Francesco Bagnaia, who renewed with Ducati, and Fermín Aldeguer, who signed with the same manufacturer to move up to the premier class with one of its satellite teams.
But what other moves could happen? At this moment, there are many rumors, but in this article, we won’t talk about rumors. We outline scenarios that would be totally surprising and unexpected, considering how they could occur. None of them are speculative, and nothing suggests that any of these changes could actually happen, so they would be just that: absolute surprises.
- Fabio Quartararo to Ducati
Rumors have been increasingly circulating about Fabio Quartararo moving to Aprilia. The rider’s contract with Monster Energy Yamaha is coming to an end, and he wants to see clear signs of progress to stay – naturally, as the 2021 champion, he wants to contend for titles and not just aim for the top ten.
Aprilia could offer him that opportunity, along with their current riders, but we’re not considering that in this exercise of imagination because there are already strong rumors about it. Instead, let’s ponder a move of Quartararo to Ducati. The Borgo Panigale manufacturer has several contenders for the seat alongside Bagnaia, and Quartararo has more than enough credentials to join the list of candidates – especially given Ducati’s status as the reference bike of today.
In theory, it seems like a logical move. However, Quartararo could also decide to wait for two more years until Yamaha delivers results. The Frenchman has expressed satisfaction with the team’s change in mentality and working methods, but the performance consequences of the bike may take some time to materialize. At only 24 years old, Quartararo has time on his side. But does he have the patience and willingness?
- Enea Bastianini to Honda, Yamaha… or satellite team
Another potential rider from Aprilia in 2025 could be Enea Bastianini. His contract with Ducati expires at the end of this year. As the reference manufacturer, Bastianini is unlikely to want to leave. However, he may be forced to do so if Jorge Martín becomes Ducati’s preferred choice. The Spaniard wants to be in a factory team next year, and he has made that very clear.
Currently leading the championship, if he continues to fight for the title as he did last year, it will be difficult to find reasons not to place him in Ducati alongside Bagnaia. If that happens, Bastianini will have to make a decision – either return to a satellite team or pursue an opportunity with another manufacturer.
In that context, Aprilia would be a very logical option, especially since there seems to be some interest in the rider. However, they are also satisfied with Aleix Espargaró and Maverick Viñales. Bastianini may need to think about other solutions.
To remain in a factory team, he would probably have to compromise and go to one of the less competitive manufacturers currently – Honda or Yamaha, where Joan Mir and Fabio Quartararo are in the final year of their contracts, respectively. But it’s not certain that the Japanese manufacturers have available seats.
In that case, if he doesn’t stay at Ducati, Bastianini would be forced to accept a demotion to a satellite team. Pramac Racing (in direct exchange with Martín) would be a very logical option for the rider in that case, but so would Trackhouse Racing or even VR46 Racing Team.
- Joan Mir to Yamaha
What if Joan Mir decides on a new challenge instead of staying with Honda? The Spaniard started the season with the best results for the Japanese manufacturer, but the current performance is still far from a level that could lead to a title fight, which he achieved in 2020.
If Mir doesn’t see signs of improvement from the RC213V – currently the least competitive bike on the grid – he could choose not to renew. In that case, his possibilities for factory teams could be three. The most surprising would undoubtedly be Yamaha, given its very similar performance to Honda’s at the moment.
- Jorge Martín to Honda or Yamaha
Martín is the runner-up, leading the championship after two rounds, and has made it very clear – whether or not with Ducati, he wants to be in a factory team in 2025. Getting promoted with Borgo Panigale won’t be easy, considering there are many candidates and even Bastianini is proving to deserve the current position.
Martín may only have two solutions left – Honda and Yamaha. Neither Japanese manufacturer would provide guarantees of immediate success, considering they are currently trying to recover. The investment and change in mindset are visible factors, but results may take time to materialize. KTM doesn’t seem plausible, not even as a surprising change – the manufacturer already lacks space to promote its own junior riders.
- Pedro Acosta to Ducati
Pedro Acosta made his MotoGP debut this year with KTM and is fully grateful to the manufacturer from Mattighofen: after all, not only did it place him in the premier class, but it also invested in him when there were doubts and he almost didn’t have chances to continue his career after the Rookies Cup.
Likewise, KTM is well aware of the raw talent they have on their hands and won’t easily give up on his services. However, his current contract expires at the end of the year, and Acosta could be tempted if an offer from Ducati arises. The Italian manufacturer is currently the strongest and could choose to build a dream team with Bagnaia and Acosta.
But this would perhaps be the most surprising move of all those discussed in this article, for several reasons. The multiple options (both internal and external) for Ducati, the mutual loyalty of Acosta and KTM, and the potential that the Austrian bike is demonstrating, particularly in the hands of the rookie, are some of them.
- Jack Miller to WSBK
What if Jack Miller leaves MotoGP? This may not be an implausible scenario. The Australian has been slow to show consistency and, at KTM, has been lagging behind teammate Brad Binder since last year. And in 2024, even Pedro Acosta is proving to be more competitive.
With almost a decade of experience, more is expected from the Australian. With Acosta threatening to deserve the promotion from GasGas Tech3 to KTM, Miller could be the one sacrificed. Of course, it could be a direct swap, but would the rider accept returning to a satellite team after being with Ducati and KTM’s official teams?
If he didn’t accept that demotion, Miller could be tempted by the World Superbike Championship. He’s approaching his 30s, and in recent years, there have been cases of success in this transition – mentioning examples like Álvaro Bautista and Scott Redding. And recently, Jorge Lorenzo said on DAZN that he wouldn’t be surprised to see someone leave MotoGP for WSBK at the
- Miguel Oliveira to WSBK
The case of Miguel Oliveira is another where his place in MotoGP might be at risk. The Portuguese rider from Trackhouse Racing has struggled to be consistent, despite having demonstrated the potential to fight for podiums and even victories.
Even with the latest version of the Aprilia RS-GP, he’s been having difficulty keeping up with the factory Aprilia riders and even scoring points. Qualifying has been one of the essential aspects for good results in today’s MotoGP, and it’s also been a Achilles’ heel for Oliveira for several years.
With his contract ending, #88 may not see his deal renewed with Aprilia and may have to look for options within or outside the paddock. Joe Roberts, for example, is one of the riders who could be considered by Trackhouse Racing to have an American rider in their lineup.
If he leaves his current team, Oliveira probably wouldn’t have a place in a factory team. In that case, he would either explore opportunities in other teams or could also opt for the World Superbike Championship (WSBK). It would be a surprising move, much like in Miller’s case, and one that the rider surely wouldn’t want to see as one of his primary options.