Shane Van Gisbergen’s name already carries weight across the motorsports spectrum, but his biggest test is still ahead. The three-time Supercars champion and Chicago Street Course victor is now fully entrenched in his NASCAR journey, moving to Trackhouse Racing for his highly anticipated full-time Cup Series debut in 2025. However, SVG himself acknowledges that success won’t come easy.
The Kiwi phenom is an undeniable talent—his road course mastery, adaptability, and aggressive racing style make him a prime candidate to shake up the NASCAR grid. But is raw talent enough to overcome a lack of stock car experience, especially when stepping into the brutal world of the Cup Series?
SVG’s Meteoric Rise in NASCAR
From a jaw-dropping debut win to full-time Cup status, Van Gisbergen’s NASCAR journey has been nothing short of extraordinary.
- July 2023: Stuns the motorsports world by winning his first-ever NASCAR Cup Series race at the inaugural Chicago Street Course, becoming the first driver to do so since Johnny Rutherford in 1963.
- 2024: Competes full-time in Kaulig Racing’s No. 97 Xfinity Series car, racking up multiple road course victories at Portland, Sonoma, and Chicago (again) while also making sporadic Cup Series starts.
- 2025: Officially joins Trackhouse Racing’s Project 91, racing full-time in the Cup Series alongside Ross Chastain and Daniel Suárez while also teaming up with Kimi Räikkönen for the Daytona 500.
However, while his Xfinity dominance on road courses has proven his natural adaptability, SVG has struggled on ovals, an essential skill set for Cup success.
Can SVG Handle the Cup Series’ Full-Time Grind?
Van Gisbergen is the first to admit that his limited seat time in a Cup car has been a major hurdle. Unlike his Supercars career—where he was a dominant force from the start—his Cup Series journey presents a steeper learning curve, especially on NASCAR’s bread-and-butter ovals.
🗣️ SVG on his biggest challenge:
“You know, every time I jumped in a Cup Car, it felt like I’d never driven it before… Being in the car every week instead of once a month or once every two months will probably make things a lot easier for me at the end.”
The reality is that experience matters. While SVG’s road course expertise is undeniable, NASCAR’s 1.5-mile and superspeedway tracks demand a completely different skill set, including:
- Drafting and pack racing on superspeedways (Daytona, Talladega)
- Tire management on intermediates (Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte)
- Short-track precision (Bristol, Martinsville, Richmond)
- Dirty air and high-speed restarts (a NASCAR staple)
His success will depend on how quickly he adapts to these elements—especially when battling seasoned veterans like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano.
New NASCAR Rules Could Work in SVG’s Favor
Recognizing that limited practice time has been a massive issue for rookies and newcomers, NASCAR is increasing practice sessions across all race weekends in 2025.
- 🔹 25-minute practice sessions for every race weekend
- 🔹 Expanded Daytona 500 practice session (Feb. 12 at 10:05 AM)
- 🔹 New qualifying formats for superspeedways and road courses
While these changes help, practice alone won’t replace real-world race experience. The grueling full-time schedule of 36 races, including 18 ovals, will be an unforgiving test of SVG’s adaptability.
The Trackhouse Advantage: Why SVG Has a Shot
One major factor working in SVG’s favor? Trackhouse Racing’s aggressive, forward-thinking approach. Led by Justin Marks, the team has become one of the most innovative in NASCAR, with its Project 91 program specifically designed to bring international talent into the Cup Series.
Trackhouse’s strengths that could benefit SVG: ✅ Innovative strategy team – known for bold calls that maximize performance.
✅ Strong road course package – SVG’s bread and butter.
✅ Teammates like Chastain & Suárez – experienced mentors to guide him.
✅ Longtime sponsors following him – a sign of stability and confidence.
While the jump to Cup is massive, having a team that believes in his long-term potential will make all the difference.
Can SVG Replicate His Chicago Magic?
Shane Van Gisbergen’s breakout Chicago win remains one of the most remarkable performances in recent NASCAR history. However, the Cup Series is about consistency, not just one-off brilliance.
🛑 Potential roadblocks to SVG’s success in 2025:
- 🔥 Cup-level competition is relentless – There are no easy weekends, and SVG will be fighting against NASCAR’s best every race.
- 🔥 The oval learning curve is steep – It took road course ace A.J. Allmendinger years to win on an oval, and SVG will face similar struggles.
- 🔥 No prior full-time Cup experience – Unlike Supercars, where he was a seasoned pro, SVG is still a rookie in NASCAR’s top series.
🏆 What SVG needs to succeed:
- Quick adaptability on ovals
- Top-10 finishes on road courses to capitalize on his strengths
- Patience with the learning process
SVG’s 2025 Outlook: Bold Prediction
SVG’s immense talent and versatility will undoubtedly make him a future Cup Series winner—but expectations should be tempered for his first full season.
🚀 Realistic 2025 Goals:
- ✅ Contend for road course wins (Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen, Indy RC)
- ✅ Earn multiple top-10 finishes on intermediates
- ✅ Improve steadily on short tracks & superspeedways
- ✅ Finish inside the top-20 in driver points
- ✅ Win Rookie of the Year (beating Carson Hocevar and others)
If SVG keeps progressing and learns from his mistakes, he could be in a strong position to fight for a playoff spot in 2026. But expect bumps along the way as he navigates the hardest challenge of his career.
Final Verdict: SVG’s NASCAR Journey is Just Beginning
Shane Van Gisbergen is stepping into uncharted territory, but if there’s anyone who can defy expectations, adapt, and thrive, it’s him. While the transition to full-time Cup racing won’t be smooth, his resilience, raw speed, and support from Trackhouse Racing set him up for success.
🔮 Prediction: SVG will score a top-5 finish on a road course and show flashes of brilliance on ovals, but his full NASCAR potential will take time to unlock. By 2026, he’ll be a legitimate playoff contender.
For now, all eyes are on SVG’s Cup Series debut at the Daytona 500. Can he shake up the NASCAR world once again? Only time will tell.
