The 2024 Formula 1 season shattered one of motorsport’s most persistent myths: that in this hyper-engineered era, drivers are interchangeable cogs, secondary to the machines and the teams behind them. Max Verstappen didn’t just obliterate this narrative—he burned it to the ground.
It is now universally acknowledged, both in F1 and beyond, that Red Bull Racing does not win the 2024 championship without Verstappen. And if the team needs proof of just how precarious a post-Verstappen future might be, it need only glance at MotoGP’s cautionary tale: Marc Marquez and Honda.
The Marquez Parable: A Warning from Two Wheels
For years, Marquez masked Honda’s structural weaknesses with his once-in-a-generation talent. Riding a notoriously difficult bike, he clinched titles with dazzling dominance. But his catastrophic 2020 injury ripped away the veneer, exposing Honda as a shadow of its former self. Since then, the once-mighty team has plunged to the bottom of the constructors’ standings, unable to regain its footing despite bringing in accomplished riders like Pol Espargaro and Joan Mir.
Marquez’s departure to Ducati—a move that reshuffled the MotoGP landscape—sealed Honda’s fate. The lesson? Extraordinary talent can make a flawed machine appear invincible, but take that talent away, and the cracks become impossible to ignore.
Verstappen’s Value: Red Bull’s Hidden Advantage
Christian Horner once described Verstappen’s sensitivity and precision as akin to a MotoGP rider’s, a talent uniquely tuned to extract the maximum from a high-performance machine. This “feel” was the backbone of Verstappen’s dominance in 2024, allowing Red Bull to mask potential vulnerabilities and stay ahead of a field that saw Mercedes, Aston Martin, and McLaren close the gap.
While other drivers have stumbled against Verstappen’s overwhelming pace, much like Marquez’s Honda teammates did, Verstappen’s ability to blend mechanical and instinctual brilliance has set him apart. He isn’t just fast—he’s the glue holding Red Bull’s dominance together.
The Danger of Believing in Replaceability
Red Bull has long thrived on a system that, at least in theory, minimizes the reliance on any single individual. “No one is bigger than the team,” Horner famously said in 2024 as rumors swirled about Verstappen’s potential interest in rival teams like Mercedes and Aston Martin.
Yet the evidence suggests otherwise. High-pedigree teammates have come and gone at Red Bull, unable to thrive in Verstappen’s shadow. The team’s dominance has increasingly hinged on his ability to perform at a level few, if any, can match. Losing Verstappen would not merely create a gap—it could unravel the entire operation.
A Future Without Verstappen? Look to Honda
If Red Bull wants to envision life without Verstappen, Honda’s post-Marquez collapse provides a chilling forecast. Like Honda, Red Bull risks becoming over-reliant on one star to the detriment of broader development. Verstappen’s departure, should it happen, could leave Red Bull exposed, with rivals like Mercedes and Aston Martin poised to capitalize.
The MotoGP paddock learned the hard way that no engineering marvel can fully compensate for the absence of elite, irreplaceable talent. Verstappen’s unique ability to harmonize with the car is not something Red Bull can replicate overnight, no matter how advanced its systems or skilled its engineers.
The Bigger Picture: Red Bull’s Dilemma
Verstappen has already hinted at openness to exploring options outside Red Bull, with rivals reportedly making overtures. Meanwhile, Red Bull faces a dilemma: invest even more heavily in retaining their franchise driver or double down on creating a future-proof system where no one driver is indispensable.
But as the Marquez saga shows, such aspirations often crumble under the weight of reality. If Red Bull lets Verstappen slip away, it risks entering a period of instability, where even world-class drivers struggle to achieve the same results.
Conclusion: The Price of Irreplaceability
Max Verstappen is Red Bull’s Marc Marquez—a generational talent whose departure could fundamentally alter the team’s trajectory. While no one driver is theoretically bigger than the team, Verstappen’s influence on Red Bull’s success has proven otherwise. The Dutchman isn’t just a cog in the Red Bull machine; he’s the engine driving it.
The lesson from MotoGP is clear: exceptional talent can elevate a team to new heights, but losing it can expose vulnerabilities that no amount of engineering ingenuity can immediately fix. Red Bull must decide whether to secure Verstappen at all costs or risk watching their empire falter, one race at a time.
In Formula 1, as in MotoGP, the line between dominance and decline is thinner than it seems.