Only 14 points separate the leader, Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati), from the second-placed Jorge Martín (Prima Pramac/Ducati) before the MotoGP season’s final round. Consequently, the title fight continues into the Valencia GP race this Sunday.
Despite his rival’s close approach, the 2022 champion remains in a privileged position: he «only» needs to finish ahead of the Spaniard to seal the title. However, the same is far from true for Martín, as outlined in this article.
Martín needs to recover 15 points from Bagnaia. In other words: Even if he wins, he must hope that the Italian doesn’t finish above sixth.
Considering this season’s results, it’s quite unlikely to happen: Apart from four retirements, Bagnaia only missed the podium once in a main race, finishing 16th in Argentina. It’s crucial to note that Martín must always finish on the podium to be champion, even if Bagnaia doesn’t score.
Francesco Bagnaia is champion if:
- He finishes ahead of Jorge Martín
- He places in the top five, regardless of Jorge Martín’s result
- He finishes between sixth and tenth, provided Jorge Martín doesn’t win
- He finishes 11th or 12th, with Jorge Martín not placing in the top two
- He places 13th or 14th, if Jorge Martín doesn’t go beyond third
- He finishes 15th or doesn’t score, since Jorge Martín doesn’t make the podium
Jorge Martín is champion if:
- He wins and Francesco Bagnaia finishes, at most, sixth
- He places second, provided Francesco Bagnaia finishes, at most, 11th
- He finishes third, with Francesco Bagnaia finishing 15th or worse
