In a high-stakes geopolitical twist, China has reportedly rejected Pakistan’s request for nuclear “second-strike” capability, rebuffing a proposal tied to granting Beijing a military base in Gwadar, the strategic port city at the heart of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The refusal underscores China’s hesitation to entangle itself in nuclear proliferation controversies and highlights the growing complexities of their strategic partnership.
A Bold Ask, a Firm Refusal
According to investigative outlet Drop Site, Islamabad sought Beijing’s support for nuclear second-strike capability during bilateral negotiations earlier this year. The request came as Pakistan aimed to modernize its defense arsenal to keep pace with India, particularly after New Delhi tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile capable of hitting Pakistani targets with precision.
In exchange, Pakistan reportedly promised to provide Beijing with a military base in Gwadar. However, China turned down the proposal, citing international legal obligations and fears of escalating global scrutiny.
Why China Said No
Beijing’s refusal hinges on its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits nuclear weapon states (NWS) from transferring nuclear weapons or related technology to non-NWS nations. Although Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state, it is not an NPT signatory, making any transfer of second-strike capabilities a potential violation of international law.
The risks for China are significant. Violating the NPT could invite harsh sanctions and damage its carefully cultivated economic and diplomatic ties worldwide, even as it seeks to expand its influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
What Is Nuclear ‘Second-Strike’ Capability?
Second-strike capability ensures a country can retaliate after suffering a nuclear attack, effectively deterring adversaries from launching a first strike. Military technology expert Kelsey Atherton explains, “Second strike is designed to call a bluff and check a threat. If an adversary knows retaliation is inevitable, the stakes of a first strike become too high to contemplate.”
For Pakistan, second-strike capability is critical to counterbalance India’s growing strategic arsenal. New Delhi’s recent test of the K4 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM)—with a range of 3,500 kilometers—has amplified Islamabad’s urgency. SLBMs, considered the most reliable second-strike platforms, remain hidden from enemy sensors, unlike land-based silos or air-launched assets.
India’s advancements, including the anticipated K5 SLBM with a range of 5,000 kilometers, underline the widening defense gap between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Gwadar: The Battleground for Influence
At the center of this diplomatic tug-of-war lies Gwadar, a deep-water port crucial to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Connecting China’s Xinjiang province to the Arabian Sea, Gwadar bypasses the vulnerable Malacca Strait, offering Beijing a vital trade route and strategic outpost.
A militarized Gwadar could also provide China with leverage against Western powers, enabling it to disrupt energy shipments from the Middle East during conflicts. However, the port’s development has sparked unrest in Balochistan, with protests and militant attacks targeting Chinese workers and projects.
This unrest, coupled with Islamabad’s growing reliance on Beijing as its largest monetary lender and defense supplier, has complicated the already fragile China-Pakistan alliance.
Balancing Allies: Pakistan’s Tightrope Walk
Caught between its deep economic ties with the West and its burgeoning partnership with China, Pakistan faces a delicate balancing act. While Beijing remains a “natural ally” for Islamabad, the rejection of its nuclear second-strike request exposes limits in the relationship.
China’s hesitancy to overcommit militarily in Pakistan highlights its cautious approach to aligning with a nation often at the center of regional instability. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s inability to secure second-strike support underscores its growing vulnerability as India accelerates its defense advancements.
A Strategic Crossroads
As the dust settles on this diplomatic standoff, one thing is clear: China’s rejection is not just a setback for Pakistan but a signal of Beijing’s calculated restraint in an increasingly volatile region. With nuclear ambitions stalled and regional rivalries intensifying, Pakistan must now navigate a precarious path forward.
For China, the Gwadar gamble continues, but its refusal to cross the nuclear proliferation line shows it is unwilling to risk global backlash—even for its closest allies.