Rebel advances in Syria pose fresh challenges for Russia, sparking hopes in Ukraine for a potential shift in Kremlin priorities.
Russia faces a new test of its military and political bandwidth as rebel insurgents in Syria mount their most significant offensive in years. Led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, the rebels have captured swaths of territory in Aleppo and Hama provinces, threatening the stability of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a staunch Kremlin ally.
This unexpected escalation has raised questions about whether Moscow can maintain its focus on Ukraine while shoring up Assad’s regime. Experts suggest that even a partial diversion of Russian resources from Ukraine to Syria could offer Kyiv a temporary advantage in its grinding war against Russian forces.
The Syrian Distraction
Rebel forces have made substantial gains in northern Syria, catching Assad’s forces and their Russian backers off guard. While Moscow has responded with airstrikes, its capacity to commit significant reinforcements appears limited. Reports suggest Russia may be evacuating its Tartus naval base in western Syria, a strategic hub for projecting power into the Mediterranean, signaling reluctance to escalate its involvement.
For now, Russia’s military activity in Syria is constrained to air operations, with no signs of large-scale troop deployments. “Russia’s jets are more than enough to support ground troops in these limited operations,” said Valeriy Romanenko, a Ukrainian air defense expert.
Implications for Ukraine
While any diversion of Russian military resources could benefit Ukraine, analysts caution that the impact may be more psychological than tactical. “The fighting in Ukraine is too important to the Kremlin,” said William Freer, a research fellow at the Council on Geostrategy. “Diverting resources to Assad is unlikely to change much regarding their campaign in Ukraine.”
However, a perceived weakening of Russian influence in Syria could serve as a morale boost for Ukraine. “The reputation loss of Putin is something inspiring for Ukrainians,” said Andrii Ziuz, a former Ukrainian national security official.
Broader Political Stakes
The timing of the Syrian crisis is politically inconvenient for Moscow, as Russia’s gains in eastern Ukraine throughout 2024 have solidified its position in that theater. The question now is whether Putin can afford to balance these dual challenges without weakening his strategic foothold in either conflict.
Reports from Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency suggest that the success of Syrian rebels has already damaged morale among Russian personnel in Syria. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has speculated that Moscow may redeploy naval assets from Tartus to bases in Russia’s north, reflecting a shift in priorities.
A Global Balancing Act
With Russian forces stretched between Syria and Ukraine, and its naval presence in the Mediterranean potentially waning, the situation underscores the fragility of Moscow’s global ambitions. For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to press its own advances while the Kremlin juggles crises on multiple fronts.