The 2023 MotoGP championship race is heading towards a thrilling climax at the final round in Valencia, with defending champion Pecco Bagnaia and his rival Jorge Martin in a tight contest for the title. Despite Bagnaia’s early 62-point lead in the season, the gap has now narrowed to just 21 points, following a dramatic points swing in the Qatar Grand Prix.
The Valencia event holds the potential to decide the championship even before the main grand prix, thanks to the points available in the Saturday sprint. Bagnaia, with six grand prix wins to Martin’s four, could secure the championship in the sprint if he establishes a 25-point lead, as sprint results don’t count towards a tiebreak in case of equal points.
Here are the scenarios for Bagnaia to become champion in the Saturday sprint:
- Bagnaia finishes 1st, and Martin is lower than 2nd.
- Bagnaia finishes 2nd, and Martin is lower than 4th.
- Bagnaia finishes 3rd, and Martin is lower than 6th.
- Bagnaia finishes 4th, and Martin is lower than 7th.
- Bagnaia finishes 5th, and Martin is lower than 8th.
- Bagnaia finishes 6th, and Martin is lower than 9th (out of the points).
For Martin to keep his title chances alive into Sunday, he needs to finish the sprint in the top two, or Bagnaia must finish lower than sixth.
If Martin wins both the sprint and the grand prix at Valencia, a track where he has shown strength, Bagnaia needs to score 16 points or more across the two races to win the title. This could be achieved with a podium finish on Sunday or a pair of fifth-place finishes.