The silly season of MotoGP has not arrived yet, but the rider market for 2025 is already starting to make headlines after the first confirmations: Francesco Bagnaia, who renewed with Ducati, and Fermín Aldeguer, who signed with the same manufacturer to move up to the premier class in one of its satellite teams.
But what other moves could happen? At this moment, there are many rumors, but in this article we are not going to talk about rumors. We outline scenarios that would be completely surprising and unexpected, considering how they could occur. None are speculative, nor do they suggest that any of these changes could actually happen, so they are just that: potential absolute surprises.
- Fabio Quartararo to Ducati
Rumors have been increasingly about Fabio Quartararo moving to Aprilia. The rider is at the end of his contract with Monster Energy Yamaha and wants to see clear signs of progress to stay – naturally, as the champion in 2021, he wants to compete for titles and not just aim for the top ten.
Aprilia would provide him with that opportunity and their current riders, but we did not include it in this exercise of imagination because there are already strong rumors about it. Therefore, we consider a move of Quartararo to Ducati. The manufacturer from Borgo Panigale has several contenders for the bike alongside Bagnaia and Quartararo has more than enough arguments to join the list of candidates – in addition to the potential interest, considering it is the current benchmark bike.
In theory, it seems like a logical change. However, Quartararo may also decide to wait another two years until Yamaha shows results. The Frenchman has been pleased with the change in mentality and way of working of the team, but the consequences in terms of bike performance may take some time to be seen. At only 24 years old, Quartararo has time on his side. But will he have the patience and willingness?
- Enea Bastianini to Honda, Yamaha… or satellite team
Another potential Aprilia rider in 2025 could be Enea Bastianini. His contract with Ducati expires at the end of this year. Being the reference manufacturer, the rider is unlikely to want to leave. However, he may be forced to do so if the option is Jorge Martín. The Spaniard wants to be in a factory team next year and has made it very clear.
Currently leading the championship, if he fights for the title again like last year, it will be difficult to find arguments not to place him in Ducati alongside Bagnaia. If that happens, Bastianini will have to make a decision – either return to a satellite team, or try to pursue an opportunity with another manufacturer.
In that context, Aprilia would be a very logical option, especially because there seems to be some interest in the rider. However, they are also happy with Aleix Espargaró and Maverick Viñales. In that case, Bastianini may have to pursue other solutions.
To continue in a factory team, Bastianini would probably have to give in and go to one of the less competitive manufacturers currently – Honda or Yamaha, where Joan Mir and Fabio Quartararo are at the end of their contracts, respectively. But it is not certain that the Japanese manufacturers have vacancies.
And in that case, if Bastianini does not continue at Ducati, he would be forced to accept a demotion to a satellite team. Prima Pramac (in direct exchange with Martín) would be a very logical option for the rider, but also Trackhouse Racing or even VR46 Racing Team.
- Joan Mir to Yamaha
And if Joan Mir decides to opt for a new challenge instead of staying at Honda? The Spaniard started the season with the best results for the Japanese manufacturer, but the current performance is still far from a level that could lead him to fight for the title he already won in 2020.
If Mir does not see signs of improvement in the RC213V – which is currently the least competitive bike in the field – he could choose not to renew. And then his possibilities in factory teams could be three. The most surprising would undoubtedly be Yamaha, considering the very similar performance to Honda at the moment.
- Jorge Martín to Honda or Yamaha
Martín is the runner-up, leads the championship after two rounds and has already made it clear – whether in Ducati or not, he wants to be in a factory team in 2025. Getting the promotion with the Borgo Panigale manufacturer will not be easy, considering that there are many candidates and even Bastianini is proving to deserve the place he currently holds.
Martín may only have two options – Honda and Yamaha. Neither of the two Japanese manufacturers would guarantee immediate success, considering that they are currently trying to recover. The investment and change of mentality are visible factors, but the results may take time to materialize. KTM does not seem plausible at all, not even as a surprising change – the manufacturer already lacks space to promote the riders from its “cantera”.
- Pedro Acosta for Ducati
Pedro Acosta arrived in MotoGP this year with KTM and is fully grateful to the Mattighofen manufacturer: after all, not only did they place him in the premier class, but they also invested in him when there were doubts and he almost had no chance to continue his career after the Rookies Cup.
Likewise, KTM knows the raw diamond they have in their hands and will not easily give up on his services. However, the current contract expires at the end of the year and Acosta could be tempted if an offer from Ducati arises. The Italian manufacturer is the strongest currently and could choose to build a dream team with Bagnaia and Acosta.
But this would be, perhaps, the most surprising move of all that we have addressed in this article, for several reasons. The abundance of options (internal and external) for Ducati, the mutual loyalty of Acosta and KTM, and the potential that the Austrian bike is demonstrating, particularly in the hands of the rookie, are some of them.
- Jack Miller to WSBK
And if Jack Miller leaves MotoGP? This may not be an unrealistic scenario. The Australian has been slow to show consistency and, at KTM, has been below his teammate Brad Binder since last year. And in 2024, even Pedro Acosta is proving to be more competitive.
With almost a decade of experience, more is expected from the Australian. With Acosta threatening to deserve the promotion from GasGas Tech3 to KTM, the sacrificed one could be Miller. It could, of course, be a direct exchange, but would the rider accept returning to a satellite team after being in the official teams of Ducati and KTM?
If he did not accept this demotion, Miller could be tempted by the World Superbike Championship. He is approaching 30 years of age and in recent years there have been successful cases of this transition – we mention the examples of Álvaro Bautista and Scott Redding. And, recently, Jorge Lorenzo said on DAZN that he would not be surprised to see someone leaving MotoGP for WSBK at the end of the year…
- Miguel Oliveira to WSBK
The case of Miguel Oliveira is another in which his place in MotoGP itself may be at risk. The Portuguese rider from Trackhouse Racing has struggled to be consistent, although he has already shown the potential to fight for podiums and even victories.
Even with the latest version of the Aprilia RS-GP, he is having difficulties keeping up with the official Aprilia riders and even scoring points. Qualifying is one of the essential aspects for good results in today’s MotoGP and also a “Achilles’ heel” for Oliveira for several years.
At the end of his contract, #88 may not see his contract renewed with Aprilia and may have to look for options in the paddock… or outside of it. Joe Roberts, for example, is one of the riders who may come into consideration for Trackhouse Racing to have an American rider in their lineup.
If he leaves his current team, Oliveira probably would not have a place in a factory team. If that were the case, he would either explore the opportunity with one of the other teams… or could also consider the WSBK. It would be a surprising change, just like in Miller’s case, and surely the rider would not want to see it as one of his main options.
